2026 Week 1 NFL score predictions, game picks: Model releases exact projections from 10,000 simulations — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's model simulated every Week 1 NFL game 10,000 times to produce exact score predictions, entering the 2026 season on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks since 2024 and over $7,000 in returns for $100 players
- The Philadelphia Eagles are the model's pick at -5.5 to beat the Washington Commanders 27-18, with Jalen Hurts projected for 213 passing yards and 1.79 touchdowns and Saquon Barkley projected for nearly 100 rushing yards and one score
- The Los Angeles Rams are 3.5-point favorites over the San Francisco 49ers in Melbourne, Australia on Sept. 10, bolstered by the offseason acquisition of Myles Garrett — the 2025 Defensive Player of the Year who set a single-season sack record with 23 — and the return of Aaron Donald
- The model also locked in exact score predictions for Patriots-Seahawks (-3.5, O/U 44.5), Bills-Texans (+1.5, 44.5), and Cowboys-Giants (+2.5, 48.5), and is calling for a shocking underdog upset among Week 1's biggest matchups
- Washington has dropped 8 of its last 10 games while Philadelphia has won 3 of its last 5, and the Commanders are 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Eagles
- Jayden Daniels is projected to throw for over 175 yards and one touchdown, while Commanders rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt is projected to rush for nearly 50 yards in his NFL debut
Why it matters: With the 2026 NFL season kicking off Sept. 10 in Melbourne and a remade Rams defense headlining the opener, bettors using SportsLine's 53-37 model gain a data-driven edge across 16 Week 1 games — including a flagged underdog upset — at a time when Washington enters Philadelphia having lost 8 of 10.
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