14 more Week 1 games, 14 matchup previews: We have predictions, picks and wild stats — SkimNews
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- Houston Texans host Buffalo Bills (1 p.m. ET, CBS, BUF -1.5) on a five-game home winning streak tied for the NFL's longest active streak; new Bills defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard faces a Texans offense that added RB David Montgomery and TE Foster Moreau, per Bradley Chubb.
- Lamar Jackson plays his first game under new Ravens OC Declan Doyle against Colts DC Lou Anarumo (formerly with the Bengals); Jackson has thrown 10 TDs and 2 INTs while averaging 258.5 passing yards across his last four games against Anarumo's defenses.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-9 ATS in their final nine games last season) visit the Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -3.5); Joe Burrow is 12-3 vs. NFC teams since Super Bowl LVI, while the Bucs counter with a remade pass rush featuring first-round pick Rueben Bain Jr. and free agents A'Shawn Robinson and Al-Quadin Muhammad.
- ESPN analytics trio Seth Walder, Eric Moody, and Pam Maldonado split their Bills-Texans picks (Walder took Bills 24-17; Moody and Maldonado took Texans), but all three picked the Ravens to beat the Colts by at least seven points.
- Bold prediction from Walder: Colts RB Jonathan Taylor records four or more receptions, exploiting new Ravens DC Jesse Minter's zone-heavy scheme after Minter's Chargers led the NFL in zone coverage last season.
- The Bengals plan to use Joe Burrow under center more often in OC Dan Pitcher's revamped offense; the Bucs lost CB Jamel Dean this offseason, compounding pass-coverage issues against Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins.
- Week 1 slate also features previously played NE-SEA and SF-LAR, with the Monday Night Football finale between Denver and Kansas City on ESPN closing the schedule.
Why it matters: Week 1 introduces three new play-callers the season will hinge on — Jim Leonhard (Bills defense), Declan Doyle (Ravens offense), and Dan Pitcher (Bengals offense) — and the ESPN panel's split on BUF-HOU versus unanimity on BAL-IND reveals where the analytics staff actually see Week 1 edges, while buried trends like Indianapolis going 3-14-1 ATS in Week 1 since 2008 offer concrete contrarian data for bettors.
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