2026 U.S. Open odds, picks, date: Surprising predictions by golf model that's nailed 17 majors
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- The 2026 U.S. Open begins Thursday, June 18 at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York — the same course where Brooks Koepka won in 2018 and where J.J. Spaun enters as defending champion after his 2025 title.
- Scottie Scheffler is the +550 favorite via FanDuel, ahead of Rory McIlroy (+1200) and Jon Rahm (+1300); 2026 major winners McIlroy (Masters) and Aaron Rai (PGA Championship) are both in the field, with Rai sitting at +10000.
- SportsLine's model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed 17 majors entering the weekend — including the 2026 Masters (its fifth straight) and both 2025 majors — after simulating every PGA Tour event 10,000 times.
- Xander Schauffele (+2000) is a model fade projected to finish outside the top 5; his only win since a two-major 2024 season was the 2025 Baycurrent Classic against a weak field, and he's posted T12 or worse in three of his past four starts.
- Ludvig Aberg (+2200) lands as a top-3 contender on the model's projected leaderboard despite going 0-for-10 in major appearances and missing the cut at the 2025 U.S. Open, riding six top-10s in seven spring starts and a No. 2 PGA Tour ranking in total strokes gained.
- The model is also flagging longshot value, including one player around 30-1 it projects to make a surprise run for the title.
Why it matters: With Scheffler a heavy +550 favorite, the model's contrarian calls carry the real value: fading Schauffele at +2000 despite his two-major pedigree and backing Aberg at +2200 despite a winless 0-for-10 major record. If SportsLine's 17-major hit rate holds, the outright winner may come from well outside the top of the odds board — potentially the unnamed 30-1 longshot.
