Myanmar's SCEF Opens to Talks as Junta Chief Visits Thailand
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- SCEF committed to pursuing a political settlement after meeting Thai and Philippine foreign ministers last month, with IISS analyst Morgan Michaels saying the umbrella body has 'abandoned its previously stated public objective of overthrowing the Tatmadaw' — though spokesman Saw Nimrod said the ultimate goal remains civilian supremacy and removing the military from politics.
- Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar's junta chief turned president, is visiting Thailand Thursday and Friday, a trip Bangkok is using to push for gradual ASEAN re-engagement with Naypyitaw, which was shunned after the 2021 coup for failing to implement a peace plan.
- Myanmar's military has regained ground on the battlefield, surviving both politically and militarily through a conscription scheme, critical support from allies such as China, and new tactics — after being 'previously thought to be on the verge of collapse,' according to independent analyst Aung Ko Ko.
- The conflict, sparked by the February 2021 coup that deposed Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, has killed over 100,000 people, displaced millions and devastated the economy.
- Naypyitaw has not accepted the SCEF as an interlocutor, instead seeking bilateral discussions with individual ethnic armed groups; International Crisis Group's Richard Horsey said 'all the conflict parties are in principle ready to hear what the other side has to say' but a peace process 'requires concessions' that look 'far off for most groups.'
- A conflict monitor flagged a sharp escalation in military attacks on civilians since the new government took office following an army-engineered election — undercutting Min Aung Hlaing's parliament declaration that 'peace is our desire, our greatest wish.'
Why it matters: The convergence of SCEF's softened stance, the junta's battlefield momentum and Thai-led ASEAN re-engagement creates the most credible diplomatic opening since the 2021 coup. But the military has not accepted SCEF as a partner, prefers bilateral talks with individual ethnic groups, and a conflict monitor flagged escalating attacks on civilians even as Min Aung Hlaing visited Bangkok — meaning 'talks' may remain 'talks of talks' while ground realities harden against the very civilians the SCEF says must be protected before any negotiation begins.
Ask SkimNews
