SpaceX Stock at $116, Lockup Clock Ticking
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- SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) trades at $116, below its $135 IPO price and near its all-time low of $107, with the stock down 31% in the past month alone
- ChatGPT assigned a 35% probability that SpaceX stock falls below $90 before year-end, a further 22.5% decline, citing potential positive catalysts including additional government launch contracts, stronger-than-expected Starlink subscriber growth, and encouraging AI infrastructure commentary
- Jon Smith, the author, assigned a higher 60-70% probability of a sub-$90 print, pointing to the momentum of the existing downtrend rather than any specific catalyst
- IPO lock-up expirations begin in early August with additional tranches becoming eligible through autumn, and as much as 40% of the company could be tradable by December
- The Twelfth Magpie's author said he plans to wait until closer to December to buy, after volatility subsides and lock-up periods fully expire, to avoid buying into choppy price swings
Why it matters: The lock-up calendar gives investors a concrete, dated risk window: early investors become free to sell starting early August, with up to 40% of shares potentially unlocked by December on top of an already 31% monthly decline. Whether insiders actually sell at that scale determines whether ChatGPT's 35% or the author's 60-70% probability proves closer to right.
