Scheffler +550 Favorite for 2026 Masters, Model Eyes Longshots
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- Scottie Scheffler is the +550 favorite for the 2026 Masters, seeking his third green jacket after wins in 2022 and 2024; he has never finished outside the top 20 at Augusta but hasn't played since mid-March after the birth of his second child — the first career stretch between the Players and the Masters with zero PGA Tour starts.
- Bryson DeChambeau (+1000) enters off back-to-back LIV Golf wins, joining Matt Fitzpatrick and Cameron Young (both +2200) as momentum picks, though none of the three has ever finished better than fifth at the Masters.
- Rory McIlroy (+1300) is bidding to become the fourth golfer to win back-to-back green jackets, but hasn't won in 14 PGA Tour starts since completing the career Grand Slam at last year's Masters, and only three defending champions have finished better than 10th in a repeat bid since Tiger Woods (2001-02).
- Jon Rahm (+1000), the 2023 champion, is given a 10.5% chance to win and a 41.3% chance of a top-5 finish by the model, which notes he has finished top-10 at Augusta five times since 2018 and hasn't placed worse than fifth all season.
- SportsLine's model has simulated the 2026 Masters 10,000 times and has correctly called 16 majors entering the weekend, including four straight Masters, last year's PGA Championship, and the Open Championship.
- McIlroy's 2026 metrics remain elite — fourth in strokes gained: total and first on tour in both SG: tee-to-green and SG: off-the-tee — even as his results have lagged since the 2025 Masters breakthrough.
- Scheffler opened 2026 with a win at the American Express and top-fives at the WM Phoenix Open and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but has finished outside the top 20 in his last two starts before his mid-March break.
Why it matters: Scheffler's career-first six-week competitive layoff before the Masters creates a genuine rust question for the +550 favorite, while McIlroy faces a historical gauntlet — defending champions have rarely defended since 2002. Bettors weighing the public favorite against a winless-but-elite McIlroy or surging DeChambeau now have a model that has hit four straight Masters to anchor their picks, plus at least one +4000-or-greater longshot the simulation is targeting for an upset at Augusta.
