NY Fed: Tariffs Added 2.9 Points to Consumer Prices — SkimNews
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- New York Federal Reserve researchers found that prices for 67 categories of goods were 2.9 percentage points higher as of February thanks to tariffs, while those same prices would have declined nearly 1% without the levies.
- The NY Fed study determined that for every 1 percentage-point increase in average tariffs, consumer goods prices rose roughly 0.25% a year later, with annual price growth peaking at the start of 2026 and elevated prices expected to persist into 2027.
- NY Fed researchers Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, and David Weinstein found roughly two-thirds of the tariff price impact came directly from the levies, with the remaining one-third driven by knock-on effects as U.S. companies passed on costs from imported parts and materials.
- The study found that only about 26% of last year's tariff increases passed through to consumer prices — undercutting Trump's argument that companies could absorb the costs rather than raise prices on shoppers.
- The White House, via spokeswoman Taylor Rogers, maintained that tariff costs would ultimately be borne by foreign exporters relying on access to the American economy.
- The Supreme Court in February struck down many of Trump's tariffs, triggering billions of dollars in refunds to retailers, though the White House has vowed to continue levies through alternative measures, with many imports now facing tariffs around 10%.
Why it matters: American consumers will keep paying elevated prices through 2027 for a policy the administration claimed foreign exporters would absorb — the NY Fed shows two-thirds of the cost hit came directly from the tariffs, with the rest rippling through domestic supply chains. The study's finding that only 26% of tariff costs were absorbed by companies gives voters a concrete, sourced rebuttal to Trump's affordability messaging heading into the post-tariff era.
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