Used Car Prices Fall in Q3, Cox Cuts Annual Forecast — SkimNews
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- Cox Automotive lowered its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index forecast for the year from a 2% increase to just 0.2%, citing high gas prices and broader inflationary pressure on consumers.
- The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell 1.95% from July to September, including a 0.6% year-over-year decline in September — the first monthly year-over-year drop since March 2025.
- Cox chief economist Jeremy Robb pointed to rising interest rates, falling consumer sentiment, the ongoing Middle East conflict, and record diesel prices as converging drags, while noting a 'wealth effect' from strong financial-asset growth provided some cushion.
- Fuel-efficient vehicles and EVs gained value during Q3 while large trucks and SUVs performed poorly, reshaping used-vehicle market dynamics as off-lease EV volume continued to grow.
- The national average gas price hit $4.33 per gallon in September, 50 cents above the previous September record of $3.83 set in 2023, according to AAA.
- The average listed price of a used vehicle was $27,239 as of August, compared to more than $50,000 for new vehicles — a gap Cox said is driving the majority of U.S. consumers to the used market.
- Retail demand for used vehicles remained relatively healthy, but Cox said the pricing changes suggest dealers have hit a ceiling on what they can charge consumers.
Why it matters: Used vehicle shoppers stand to gain negotiating leverage as wholesale prices decline, but dealers may face margin compression now that they've hit a consumer pricing ceiling — particularly on large trucks and SUVs, whose values have lagged as $4.33-per-gallon gas pushes buyers toward smaller, fuel-efficient models.
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