Gold price outlook: What lies ahead for the yellow metal? Here's what Goldman Sachs says on bull run prediction — SkimNews
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- Tony Kim, Goldman Sachs's global head of metals trading, calls the recent weakness an 'elongated pause' rather than a bull-market end, saying '$4,000 is a pretty solid floor' and advising investors to scale into long positions near that level before the FOMC.
- Gold came under pressure as Treasury yields and the US dollar climbed, compounded by stronger-than-expected US jobs data on September 4 that raised expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16 meeting.
- Two simultaneous complications cloud the outlook, per Kim: investor uncertainty over Fed policy under new chair Kevin Warsh, and the US-Iran conflict's spillover into global energy markets.
- Central bank gold purchases have roughly doubled since the Russia-Ukraine war, jumping from 400-500 tonnes annually pre-war to 1,000-1,100 tonnes now, with World Gold Council data showing 863 tonnes bought in 2025 versus a 2010-21 average of 473 tonnes and an estimated 345 tonnes in H1 2026.
- Global gold supply is feeling the squeeze: roughly 3,500 tonnes are mined annually, and central banks now absorb about a third of that — leaving what Kim calls a 'much smaller funnel' for jewelry, ETFs, bars, and physical investment, meaning less fresh speculative capital is required to push prices materially higher.
- Asian gold demand has temporarily weakened as higher energy costs and currency pressures force countries such as India to prioritize energy security, creating a near-term headwind to the broader bullish thesis.
Why it matters: Central banks now absorb 1,000-1,100 tonnes of gold annually—roughly a third of global mine production—shrinking the supply funnel for jewelry and ETFs. With 2025 central bank purchases at 863 tonnes versus a 2010-21 average of 473, Kim argues less speculative capital is now required to drive prices materially higher.
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