Kalshi Founders Defend $13B Prediction Market
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- Kalshi processed nearly $13 billion in bets during March 2026, spanning sporting events, elections, and pop-culture questions like where Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will marry
- The Wall Street Journal reported Kalshi is raising new private funding at a $22 billion valuation, a figure the co-founders did not dispute on the show
- CEO Tarek Mansour and COO Luana Lopes Lara argued Kalshi functions like a stock or commodities exchange — with every contract approved by the CFTC — rather than a sportsbook or casino
- Sports markets accounted for roughly 70% of Kalshi's March volume, though the founders conceded those markets offer limited 'actionable intelligence'
- Kalshi has been sued by numerous states yet has won most cases; hours before the taping, a U.S. appeals court ruled New Jersey has no authority to regulate prediction markets
- Donald Trump Jr. joined Kalshi as a paid advisor in 2025, though Lara said the company has never asked him to influence regulation and pointed to 'consumer protection' as the issue resonating with both parties
- Kalshi's own market currently prices Democrats to retake the House in the 2026 midterms, with the Senate rated a toss-up
Why it matters: Kalshi's $13 billion monthly handle and $22 billion valuation show prediction markets have outgrown niche status, but the 70% sports share is the legal soft underbelly states are targeting. With a Supreme Court ruling the likely endgame on whether CFTC oversight preempts state gambling laws, Kalshi's exchange-versus-sportsbook identity — and its $13B-a-month business — now hinges on a federal preemption fight.
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