Carnival Surges 11% as Iran Cease-Fire Sends Oil Plunging
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- Carnival stock surged 11.2% — its biggest one-day gain since April 9, 2025 — becoming the S&P 500's third-biggest gainer, recouping some of the 18% March loss the shares suffered after the Iran conflict began.
- Crude oil futures dropped 14.8%, heading for their biggest selloff in six years, though they remained 44% above where they ended on Feb. 27, the day before the conflict started.
- Norwegian Cruise Line climbed 9.1%, Royal Caribbean rose 4.3%, United Airlines gained 7.9%, and Delta Air Lines closed up 3.8% on hopes of easing fuel costs.
- Home Depot jumped 5.5% toward its biggest one-year increase, while Amazon added 3.5% and Walmart gained 3.9%, lifting the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF 2.8%.
- Carnival had cut its full-year profit outlook in late March, saying a jump in fuel costs had offset record cruise demand.
- USC supply-chain expert Nick Vyas warned it could take 6-9 months for consumer prices to level off, saying "the retail price is most like a cargo ship. It's not a speedboat."
- Vice President JD Vance called the cease-fire "fragile," with fighting reportedly continuing in the region on Wednesday.
Why it matters: Carnival's 11.2% surge is hope, not yet relief: oil remains 44% above pre-war levels and VP Vance called the deal fragile, while Carnival had already cut its full-year profit outlook before the rally. Average U.S. gas prices have sat above $4 a gallon since the war began Feb. 28, and experts say 6-9 months before retail prices reflect any drop.
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