India builds Brahmaputra dams, China expands upstream
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- China is building a suite of hydraulic dams on the Yarlung Tsangpo, including the 60 GW Great Bend project, Zangmu and Jiacha dams, and 18 additional planned dams.
- China has withheld hydrological data from India since 2022, a practice described as psychological warfare and a breach of prior data‑sharing arrangements.
- The 2002 MoU on river‑data sharing expired on June 5 2025 and has not been renewed, leaving the bilateral data‑exchange framework in limbo.
- India is pursuing a dam‑for‑dam policy, fast‑tracking mega‑hydropower projects such as the 20,000 MW Siang Upper Multipurpose Project (SUMP) in the frontier region.
- Narendra Modi raised calls for stronger international cooperation on the Brahmaputra basin during his 2015 visit to China and again at the latest G‑20 summit, but no concrete agreements have emerged.
- India’s hydro‑diplomacy remains limited to the expired MoU and occasional expert‑level meetings, with no progress toward a basin‑wide multilateral institution.
Why it matters: India’s aggressive dam‑building secures water for its frontier states while China’s upstream projects and data blackout undermine joint flood forecasting, leaving downstream communities exposed and escalating ecological risk. The shift from diplomatic engagement to infrastructure competition deepens the water‑politics stalemate and reshapes regional power dynamics.
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