Browns vs. Steelers predictions, odds, time: Week 4 'Thursday Night Football' picks from advanced model — SkimNews
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- The SportsLine model projects the Under 38.5 in 56% of 10,000 simulations, with a projected 37 combined points and both teams throwing for under 200 yards
- The Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) are 2.5-point favorites but will be without RB Rico Dowdle (toe, ruled out) and just traded CB Joey Porter Jr. to Dallas
- The Cleveland Browns (2-1) seek their third straight win and have won each of the last four meetings at Huntington Bank Field, where kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET
- Both offenses rank in the NFL's bottom 10 in scoring through three weeks and finished in the bottom eight in total offense last season, with rain and double-digit m.p.h. winds in the forecast
- The model is on a 54-43 run on top-rated NFL picks since 2024, having returned over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated picks since its inception
- Both teams are 2-1 ATS this season, though the Over is 2-1 for Cleveland and 1-2 for Pittsburgh, with the model flagging one spread side hitting in well over 50% of simulations
Why it matters: Two bottom-10 scoring offenses meeting in rainy Cleveland conditions create a model-friendly Under scenario, and the model specifically projects 37 combined points in a game where Pittsburgh is a short favorite despite losing Dowdle and trading Porter. The 56% Under simulation rate is the data-backed lean for bettors on a prime-time game where both teams' offensive limitations and the weather converge.
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