As bitcoin, altcoin prices gain, derivatives signal skepticism over a sustained rally
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- Bitcoin and major altcoins rose Monday as easing oil prices and hopes for an Iran-U.S. deal provided a tailwind, though the CoinDesk 20 Index remained slightly lower over 24 hours and smaller outliers like DEXE and BEAT jumped 8% and 5%.
- Bitcoin clawed back to $64K but is stuck between key support near $60,000 and resistance around $66,000 to $68,000, with analysts at Marx noting the 200-week SMA near $62.2K and the $60K shelf separate 'a base from a deeper leg.'
- Chart analysts warn bitcoin's daily chart is carving out an 'ominous bear flag,' and if the pattern breaks to the downside the next stop could be $54,000.
- Derivatives data flash heavy skepticism: bitcoin's 24-hour volume jumped 30% to $129.9 billion while liquidations rose 41% to $212 million (longs accounting for $118.4 million), and on Deribit BTC and ETH puts continue trading at a premium to calls.
- XRP stood out as the outlier, with open interest jumping to 2.35 billion tokens (the most since the October crash) and funding rates marginally positive at around 4%, though 24-hour CVD is negative and the chart shows a recent bear flag breakdown.
- Taiko's native token TAIKO collapsed nearly 30% to a $14 million market cap after the Ethereum layer-2 network halted its chain due to a bridge exploit that drained roughly 2 million TAIKO (~$170,000), which the attacker reportedly moved to MEXC.
- Combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% in May to $4.41 trillion, the lowest since September 2024, while RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend to a new all-time high.
Why it matters: Traders are hedging heavily against a sustained rally: Deribit puts trade at a premium to calls, negative CVD dominates 23 of the top 25 tokens, and $118.4 million in longs were liquidated in 24 hours. With bitcoin pinned between $60K support and $68K resistance, a bear flag breakdown could drag BTC toward $54,000.
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