Bitcoin Golden Cross Fades as Fed Hike Odds Hit 86% — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin's 50-day EMA slipped back below its 200-day EMA Friday evening as BTC retreated to $77,438, undoing a golden cross that had briefly confirmed earlier in the session and ended Bitcoin's longest run without one since last November.
- September CPI showed monthly core inflation at 0.3%, hotter than the 0.2% analysts expected, sending CME FedWatch odds of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike from roughly 69% to 86.5% within hours.
- BTC opened at $76,529, spiked to $79,837, then rolled over to a low of $76,040 before settling near $77,438 — still up 1.19% on the day but well off intraday highs.
- The 4-hour chart's golden cross remains intact, but RSI has fallen to 43.3 into bearish territory and the Squeeze Momentum indicator just fired with 3.95% volatility expansion, typically what happens right as a sharp move gets underway.
- Daily ADX sits at 45, well above the 25 threshold for a real trend, and RSI at 55.5 stays on the bullish side of neutral — suggesting the moving-average flip may not reflect actual trend weakness.
Why it matters: Hotter-than-expected core CPI pushed CME FedWatch's implied odds of a Fed rate hike from 69% to 86.5% in hours, and that repricing dragged Bitcoin from $79,837 to $77,438 in the same session. With the Fed meeting now leaning hawkish, the source notes risk assets like Bitcoin and tech stocks would take a hit if the Fed raises rates next week.
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