Playoff tiers: How 29 contenders to make the field of 12 stack up — SkimNews
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- Miami holds a 98.3% average playoff probability at 8-0, and SP+ gives the Hurricanes only a 1% chance of finishing 9-3 or worse; the counterweight is a defense that has allowed 31 points per game for three straight weeks.
- Indiana has 89.2% playoff odds at 8-1 but must manage Josh Hoover's arm issue: he has completed 16 of 37 passes over his last two games, while Grant Wilson went 9-for-17 for 156 yards and a touchdown against Minnesota.
- Notre Dame sits at 86.4% after starting slowly against BYU (down 21-10 at halftime) and Navy (down 13-7 after 29 minutes); the analysis says a 10-2 finish should still earn a CFP berth, while 9-3 almost certainly would not.
- Utah carries 85.6% odds at 8-0 and can strengthen its case by beating BYU or Arizona, which would give it a shot at 11-1; it led Cincinnati 42-6 at halftime after four offensive touchdowns and two defensive scores.
- Georgia has 84.7% odds at 7-1 but has fumbled eight times in three games and 15 times this season; a 2-1 finish against Ole Miss, South Carolina and Missouri would nearly set its playoff spot.
- Ohio State carries 68.6% odds but is labeled the most vulnerable blue blood in its tier: its defense allowed USC 6.8 yards per play and three touchdowns, with five straight SP+ top-30 opponents likely to come without injured QB Julian Sayin.
- LSU is 6-2 with 44.5% playoff odds in a seven-team tier expected to produce about three bids; including LSU, four SEC teams have two losses, a concentration the analysis highlights for Tuesday's first CFP rankings.
Why it matters: Miami's 98.3% playoff probability effectively reserves a place, making the next tier decisive: about 3.5 of Indiana, Notre Dame, Utah and Georgia are projected to make the field. Georgia's 15 fumbles and Indiana's quarterback crisis are the clearest vulnerabilities, while Tier 4's four two-loss SEC teams sit within a seven-team group projected to yield about three bids.
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