SportsLine Model Projects Every NFL Week 3 Game — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's Projection Model ran 10,000 simulations per game to generate Week 3 NFL score predictions and cover probabilities for all 15 remaining matchups
- Chiefs are the largest Week 3 favorite at -10.5 against the Dolphins, with the model projecting a 32-16 Kansas City win and a 60% cover probability
- Lions earned the model's strongest cover confidence at 66% as 6.5-point favorites over the Jets, with a projected 36-23 Detroit win
- Rams are projected to host the Broncos on Sunday night without wide receiver Puka Nacua, who is sidelined by a hip/groin injury
- Sportsbooks are advertising up to $3,000 in combined sign-up bonuses for Week 3, including DraftKings ($150 bonus on a $5 wager), FanDuel ($250), and BetMGM (up to $1,500)
- Eagles close Week 3 as 4.5-point Monday night favorites over the Bears, with the model projecting a 23-17 Philadelphia win at 50% cover probability
Why it matters: The model's most confident Week 3 spread is the Lions covering -6.5 at 66% — well above the 51-60% range across most other matchups — giving bettors a clear model-driven outlier versus the typical Week 3 card where favorites cluster near coin-flip cover rates.
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