UN: 1.5C Likely Breached in Next Few Years — SkimNews
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- Paris Agreement entered into force on 4 November 2016 after nearly 200 countries signed it in 2015, committing to pursue 1.5C of warming, remain well below 2C and reach net zero in the second half of the century.
- 1.5C target generally refers to a 20-year average rather than a single year, so 2024 being more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels did not technically breach the threshold.
- UN reported that the 1.5C limit was likely to be exceeded in the next few years after decades of insufficient climate action; even its lowest possible scenario reaches 1.7-1.8C by mid-century.
- UN found that government pledges cover only half the required emissions reductions: emissions need to fall 18% between 2025 and 2030, while nearly 3C is projected by century’s end without further action.
- U.S. withdrew in January 2026 under Trump, having also exited during his first presidency and rejoined under Biden in 2021; Iran, Libya and Yemen are the only UN members outside the agreement.
- COP30 concluded in 2025 without directly mentioning fossil fuels; host Brazil published a voluntary roadmap for moving away from them, due to be discussed at COP31 in Antalya from 9 to 20 November 2026.
- COP29 produced a $300bn-a-year commitment from richer countries by 2035, which developing countries criticized as a “paltry sum”; the earlier $100bn annual goal was missed in 2020 and reached in each of the three years after 2022.
Why it matters: Developing countries face a financial test as well as a 2030 deadline: richer nations’ $300bn-a-year pledge was criticized as inadequate, while the UN says emissions must fall 18% by 2030. The earlier $100bn goal was missed in 2020 and reached only after 2022, leaving poorer nations to adapt with delayed climate finance.
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