UNEP: Earth's 1.5°C Comeback Possible, Not Probable — SkimNews
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- UN Environment Programme acknowledged the world will likely overshoot 1.5°C of warming "within the next few years" but said cooling back to that level by the end of the century is still possible — though "certainly isn't the most likely outcome."
- The report's scenario requires capping warming at no more than 1.8°C and halving global emissions by 2035, a target that report author Joeri Rogelj of Imperial College London called "highly unlikely" given that emissions are still rising worldwide.
- Beyond mitigation, the scenario demands removing around 10 gigatonnes of CO2 per year on top of achieving net zero — scaling carbon removal by a factor of roughly 100,000 compared with current levels, against annual emissions of about 40 gigatonnes.
- Debra Roberts warned overshoot would bring "increased food insecurity, increased water insecurity," threats to homes and infrastructure, and irreversible losses — "returning to 1.5 doesn't mean we return back to the same world we left."
- Konstantin Weber at ETH Zurich noted just two of the latest emissions scenarios imply a return to 1.5°C before 2150, while the scenario based on current policies forecasts roughly 3°C of warming by 2100.
- Reto Knutti judged the overshoot-and-return scenario technically and financially possible but "not politically plausible," and recommended that planning assume adaptation for at least 2°C — while James Dyke said there are "still no credible plans for large-scale carbon dioxide removal."
- Oliver Geden of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs warned the overshoot concept "may turn out to be no more than a way to mask ongoing failure" in climate action.
Why it matters: For policymakers and adaptation planners, the report codifies what was previously informal: the Paris Agreement's headline temperature target will be breached, and the official fallback plan rests on carbon removal technology that, per multiple cited scientists, has no credible roadmap at the required 100,000x scale. The practical baseline shift, as Knutti put it, is preparing for "at least 2 degrees, if not more" — a planning assumption with material consequences for food systems, infrastructure, and insurance risk in coming decades.
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