Israel Election: Votes Don’t Decide Next PM — SkimNews
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- Israel holds a legislative election on Oct. 27 in which the vote count alone will not determine the next prime minister due to the country’s complex coalition-based system.
- Benjamin Netanyahu campaigns for re-election, framing the vote as a choice between his leadership continuing to 'change the face of the Middle East' or risking Israel 'losing everything'.
- 38 party slates are contesting the election, with the 3.25% electoral threshold threatening to discard votes for smaller lists that fall short, effectively silencing up to three potential lawmakers.
- Surplus vote agreements between allied parties allow transfer of leftover votes, giving some factions extra seats while isolated parties like Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit lose their surplus votes entirely.
- President Isaac Herzog will consult with parties post-election to decide who gets the mandate to form a government, a process likely to involve intense horse-trading among Knesset members.
- Gadi Eisenkot has proposed forming a minority government or a temporary alliance to oust Netanyahu before calling new elections, though both options face significant political hurdles.
- Shalom Lipner notes that past elections show the top vote-getter doesn’t always become prime minister, citing Tzipi Livni in 2009 and Naftali Bennett in 2021 as examples of procedural outcomes overriding popular results.
Why it matters: The Israeli electoral system gives disproportionate power to small parties and procedural rules, meaning a government could form despite being rejected by a majority of voters. This structural quirk risks deepening public disillusionment and prolonging political instability, with Netanyahu’s future hinging less on election night results than on backroom negotiations among 120 lawmakers.
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