Perps Hit $1B Week One at Kalshi as Banks Hold Back
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- Kalshi's perpetual futures surpassed $1 billion in trading volume within one week of their June launch, the exchange's biggest product debut since prediction markets.
- The CFTC cleared Kalshi on May 29 to offer perpetual futures in the U.S., and Coinbase also received approval to list regulated perpetuals.
- Bank of America estimates annual perpetual futures volume at roughly $90 trillion globally, reflecting the product's dominance in offshore crypto trading.
- Most large banks are still studying perpetuals rather than preparing launches, with first movers expected to be proprietary trading firms, market makers and newer clearing firms that face fewer capital and reputational constraints.
- Kalshi has sought regulatory approval to offer perpetuals tied to gold and silver, signaling the product is expanding beyond bitcoin and other digital assets.
- The CME has challenged the CFTC's treatment of Kalshi's bitcoin perpetuals, arguing the contracts should be regulated differently — a dispute industry insiders say could repeat if exchanges push into equities and commodities.
- Industry insiders said a liquid 24-hour perpetual market could help firms hedge weekend risk and serve as a price-discovery tool, though thin weekend liquidity and slow collateral systems remain obstacles.
Why it matters: For the largest U.S. banks, capital rules and reputational risk raise the bar above what prop shops and market makers face, and perpetuals haven't cleared it yet. Banks will likely wait for years of volume data, a settled futures-vs.-swaps regulatory classification, and stable infrastructure before committing balance sheet — leaving prop firms and market makers to define how perps trade onshore first.
