Bitcoin slides below $65K as Iran conflict fuels $100 oil and bond-yield surge
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- Bitcoin fell below $65,000 on Thursday, hitting a three-day low of $64,799 on Bitstamp as risk assets sold off across the board.
- Brent crude topped $100 a barrel — its highest level since early June — as US President Donald Trump warned he would hold Iran responsible for recent Houthi strikes on Saudi commercial vessels, posting on Truth Social that he was "very disappointed" and referencing 2025 attacks on US ships.
- US equities closed lower, with the S&P 500 down 1.2% and the Nasdaq shedding 2.2%, while The Kobeissi Letter flagged 18-month highs in US 10-year bond yields and said "inflation expectations and interest rates are rising sharply again."
- CME FedWatch data showed July Fed rate-hike odds climbing to nearly 40% on Thursday, up from roughly 12% a week earlier — a sharp reversal of expectations that had favored cuts.
- Trader Exitpump told X followers to "close your longs" and go short once Bitcoin breaks below $65K, arguing the July relief rally is nearing its end.
- Analyst Michaël van de Poppe identified the 21-week simple moving average at $64,073 as key support and set a $73,000 target contingent on bulls clearing the $68,000 resistance zone, now being tested for the second time.
- Trader Jelle struck a more constructive tone, arguing price is "still making progress" and that a break above local resistance could open a "void towards $70k" quickly.
Why it matters: The simultaneous surge in oil, bond yields, and Fed-hike odds marks a one-week reversal that had previously priced in rate cuts — a cocktail that historically weighs on risk assets and puts Bitcoin's $64,073 floor in play if $65K fails to hold.
