Oil Prices 40% Above Feb as Trump Hints at Iran Peace
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- Oil price is 40% higher than in late February when the Iran war began.
- President Donald Trump says a peace agreement is "all but wrapped up" despite ongoing skirmishes.
- Iran retains leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, and may keep control even if it "opens" the passage.
- Oil shortages will persist because mines need weeks to clear, production at shut‑in wells will take months, and refinery and pipeline repairs will take years.
- Trump’s team believes Iran’s economy is catastrophically damaged, forcing tougher terms, while Iran believes Trump cannot risk high gas prices before midterms.
- Russia is aiding Iran with intelligence and materiel, and Chinese components are in drones used by all sides.
Why it matters: The 40% jump in oil prices squeezes farmers, who face higher fertilizer costs, and drivers, who pay more at the pump; a peace deal could lower those costs, but Iran’s strait leverage and the extensive damage to Middle East oil infrastructure mean shortages and high prices are likely to persist, limiting any immediate relief.
