Prediction Markets Chase NFL-Midterms 'Supercycle' — SkimNews
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- Prediction markets enter the fall with daily notional trading volume consistently in the billions, anchored by two dominant incumbents (Polymarket and Kalshi) and a wave of smaller exchanges chasing market share
- Kalshi posted a record $2.3 billion in volume on the first day of college football (Saturday) and launched a midterm elections hub in July, with plans for an in-person election night event
- Polymarket debuted a football-season ad campaign featuring LeBron James, Eli Manning, and Derek Jeter and unveiled a new U.S. exchange product letting users talk, share, and trade on the platform together
- Both Kalshi and Polymarket suffered opening-weekend glitches — Polymarket's U.S. platform was down much of Saturday and refunded affected users, while Kalshi prematurely resolved a University of Michigan market as if Western Michigan had pulled the upset, then corrected the payout
- Rothera, the Susquehanna International Group–Robinhood joint venture that went live in late May, saw volumes boom during the FIFA World Cup and is racing to add more sports offerings
- Newer entrants Novig and ProphetX are leaning into the NFL cycle — Novig launched an ad featuring actress Sydney Sweeney, while ProphetX said its revenue doubled from June to August and is targeting 4–5x growth by year-end
- Platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi are fighting states in court that argue sports event contracts amount to gambling and should fall under state, rather than CFTC, regulatory purview
Why it matters: With Kalshi and Polymarket each clearing billions in single-day volume and newer platforms like ProphetX explicitly calling the NFL cycle 'make or break,' this fall is the first real stress test of whether prediction markets can sustain growth without a presidential election as the catalyst — but the unresolved fight between state regulators and the CFTC over whether sports event contracts are gambling remains the existential risk hanging over every platform in the category.
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