China built robots that can do backflips – but can they make money?
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- Unitree Robotics priced its IPO at 150.8 yuan ($22.4) per share, raising $900 million and valuing the company at ~$9 billion ahead of its Shanghai STAR Market listing — retail demand was oversubscribed 5,000+ times with a 0.018% lot-winning rate.
- DeepSeek and other strategic investors joined Unitree's IPO, while a pre-IPO perpetual contract on crypto exchange Hyperliquid traded at roughly 4x the IPO price, reflecting speculative frenzy ahead of trading.
- Unitree's humanoid business remains heavily skewed toward demos: nearly 73% of humanoid revenue came from research and education in the first nine months of 2025, and Q1 adjusted profit fell more than 52% as R&D and marketing costs surged — even though revenue quadrupled last year.
- Humanoid robot economics are shifting fast — average prices plunged 93% from 2020 to 2025 to $58,000, while Unitree's $16,000 G1 costs just $82/year to run eight hours daily; the company cut its G1 EDU price 45%+ to $27,300 while keeping a 67% gross margin.
- U.S. restrictions on foreign-made humanoid robot imports add risk, with Unitree deriving 13% of revenue from the U.S.; analysts also flagged potential loss of access to Nvidia hardware as a major geopolitical vulnerability for Chinese robotics firms.
- China's robotics dominance is substantial — the country accounts for over 70% of global industrial robot installations and nearly 90% of humanoids deployed last year, with Wood Mackenzie projecting the global humanoid fleet to grow 90%+ annually through 2035 past 10 million units.
- Rivals AgiBot and Leju Robotics are pursuing Hong Kong and Shenzhen listings respectively, while Tesla's Elon Musk is converting the Fremont factory to produce Optimus humanoids — underscoring the global race despite unresolved commercial questions.
Why it matters: Unitree's ~$9 billion valuation at over 200x trailing earnings hangs on a bet that humanoids will move from labs to factories and homes — but with nearly 73% of humanoid revenue still from research and robots limited to a few hours of useful battery life, retail-driven enthusiasm could collide with the slow reality of commercial scaling.
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