Latest CFP, bowl projections: How did the postseason picture shift after Week 4? — SkimNews
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- Week 4 delivered big wins, thrilling finishes, and upsets that ESPN's Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach say shifted this week's playoff and bowl projections.
- Iowa stunned Michigan with a game-ending finish, signaling the Big Ten title race is "wider open than expected."
- Florida earned a big conference win and enters Week 5 undefeated for the first time since 2019; Oregon returned to Eugene with a road victory at USC.
- For the 2026 season, the CFP grants automatic bids to all four Power 4 conference champions plus the highest-ranked Group of 6 team; Notre Dame is guaranteed a field spot if ranked in the top 12.
- The four highest-ranked teams earn first-round byes; seeds 5-8 host first-round games on campus Dec. 18-19, with the title game Jan. 25 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
- Bonagura projects Georgia as the No. 1 overall seed with a Notre Dame-vs.-Georgia national championship; Schlabach slots Texas at No. 1 and projects a Georgia-vs.-Miami title game.
- Both gurus agree on Penn State vs. LSU in the Citrus Bowl but diverge on virtually every other major matchup in the 41-game projection slate.
Why it matters: The two ESPN experts don't even agree on the No. 1 seed: Bonagura tabs Georgia with a Notre Dame title-game matchup, while Schlabach has Texas at No. 1 projecting a Georgia-Miami final. With the 2026 CFP format guaranteeing auto bids to all four Power 4 champions plus a Notre Dame top-12 lock, Week 4's upsets aren't merely shuffling rankings — they're reshaping which programs control their own postseason path before Selection Day on Dec. 6.
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