Ford Q2 Earnings Due: $2.1B Expected, USMCA and EV Risks Loom
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- Ford is expected to report Q2 operating profit of $2.1 billion on $47.2 billion in sales Tuesday, flat with year-ago operating profit despite revenue dropping from $50.2 billion.
- Ford raised full-year operating profit guidance in April to $8.5–10.5 billion (prior range $8–10 billion), even as 2025 operating profit fell to $6.8 billion from $10.2 billion in 2024 due to roughly $2 billion each in tariff and Novelis aluminum fire costs.
- Ford's EV business lost roughly $800 million in Q1 2026 and $4.8 billion in 2025, with the cost-cutting universal EV (UEV) platform not launching until around 2027.
- RBC analyst Tom Narayan warned the U.S. decision not to renew the USMCA trade pact could weigh on Ford shares in the second half of 2026.
- Ford stock was up about 12% year-to-date and 30% over the trailing 12 months entering Tuesday, trading near $14.82, after a 1.3% drop following Q1 results despite the raised guidance.
- General Motors raised its full-year financial forecasts the prior week when reporting Q2 numbers, raising the bar for Ford's print.
Why it matters: Ford's 2025 operating profit fell 34% from 2024 as tariffs and a supplier fire cost roughly $4 billion combined, and Tuesday's print must validate the April guidance bump that helped drive a 30% stock gain over the past year. With USMCA renegotiation looming and EV losses bleeding through, the traditional auto business must carry the load to hit the high end of guidance.
