Tesla stock drops 14% on Q2 profit miss; $25B capex confirmed
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- Tesla stock slid 14.25% to $320.70 in midday trading after Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.50 estimate, though revenue of $28.24 billion topped the $26.32 billion expected, up 26% year-over-year.
- Tesla confirmed full-year 2026 capex of 'more than $25 billion,' with CEO Elon Musk calling it a 'massive capex year' as the company invests simultaneously in Optimus humanoid robots, AI data centers, and Cybercab production.
- Tesla reported Q2 deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, up 25% year-over-year and well above the 397,466 Bloomberg consensus, with energy storage deployments hitting 13.5 GWh — more than 50% above the prior quarter's 8.8 GWh.
- Tesla's Robotaxi service now spans seven major metro areas with over 380,000 unsupervised miles driven, while FSD active subscriptions climbed to 1.48 million, up 56% from a year ago.
- Tesla offered no timeline for Optimus volume production or when the latest robot version will be revealed, even as Musk said the first builds will be used for training data collection at the company's 'Optimus Academy.'
- Tesla's geographic sales split is diverging sharply: Greater Europe registrations jumped nearly 108% in May while Cox Automotive forecasts US sales to fall 20% following the expiration of the federal EV tax credit.
- Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh cut Tesla's price target to $450 from $480, noting the fleet of roughly 25-50 Cybercabs/Robotaxis is significantly smaller than Waymo's 2,000-3,000 vehicles.
Why it matters: Tesla just told investors it will burn over $25 billion in capex this year on Optimus, Cybercab, and AI infrastructure while missing earnings on the auto business that funds those bets — a combination that exposes how much of Tesla's valuation now depends on physical AI products that have not yet demonstrated commercial ROI. Morgan Stanley warned that absent consistent proof points, the market's tolerance for incremental capex will narrow.
