Iran War Halts Thai, Vietnamese Rice Planting
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- Strait of Hormuz blocks vessels, halting Thai rice shipments to Iraq, a market that bought 1 million tonnes in 2025.
- Diesel prices have doubled for Vietnamese farmers, raising production costs while rice selling prices stay at 2025 levels.
- Vietnamese sea freight costs rose 25‑35% and transit times lengthened by one to two weeks, squeezing exporters to the Philippines, which accounts for 40% of Vietnam’s rice exports.
- Thai Rice Exporters Association aims to ship 7 million tonnes of rice in 2026, but the war has stopped those exports, pushing the association to look for alternative markets in Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines.
- Do Ha Nam warns that prolonged disruption could force Vietnamese growers to skip the next crop, potentially cutting national output by up to 10%.
Why it matters: Thai rice exporters lose a potential 1 million‑tonne Iraq market; Vietnamese farmers face a 25‑35 % freight cost surge, prompting some to skip the next harvest, which will slash Vietnam’s rice output by up to 10 % and push regional prices higher.
