US-Iran Deal Nears: Hormuz Reopens, No Enrichment Halt
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- Esmaeil Baqaei, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, posted on X claiming Iran is winning negotiations with Trump, using a historical analogy of Roman Emperor Marcus Julius Philippus bowing to a Sasanian Persian leader.
- Trump said Saturday a deal was close and both sides have agreed to basic terms, though the agreement still needs approval from Iran's supreme leader and Trump himself.
- The emerging deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed during the conflict and cut off roughly 20% of the world's oil supply, causing energy prices to skyrocket.
- The agreement does not address Iran's missile supply or require halting uranium enrichment, but would have Iran dispose of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, and includes sanctions relief; Iran has not yet requested a specific dollar amount for frozen assets.
- Mike Pompeo and Republican lawmakers blasted the deal over insufficient restraint on Iran's nuclear stockpile, while Netanyahu backed the plan with the caveat that Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons or enriched uranium.
- Trump spoke Saturday with Netanyahu and leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Pakistan, and Türkiye about the proposed plan.
Why it matters: The deal's most concrete effect is reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restoring roughly 20% of global oil supply, easing energy prices that spiked during the war. The lack of enrichment and missile constraints, combined with Republican midterm-pressure opposition, means Trump is accepting political risk to end a conflict that has battered Iran.
