Thwaites May Shed 200 Gt of Ice Yearly by 2067
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- Thwaites Glacier could lose 180–200 gigatonnes of ice per year by 2067, a rate comparable to the entire Antarctic ice sheet's current annual loss of 135–150 Gt, according to satellite-calibrated ice sheet models from University of Edinburgh researchers published in Geophysical Research Letters.
- Goldberg et al. found that models trained on satellite surface elevation change data projected the steepest future mass losses, while models calibrated only on ice velocity produced lower, more stable rates—a discrepancy showing that observational choice can dramatically reshape sea level rise projections.
- Thwaites Glacier is already losing ice more than five times faster than in the 1990s, and models show thinning spreading inland along deep bedrock troughs consistent with marine ice sheet instability.
- Thwaites holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by approximately 65 cm if it fully collapsed, and researchers warn its contribution could accelerate faster than many global projections currently assume.
- The study stresses that better observations of grounding line retreat, warm-water circulation beneath ice shelves, and ice-ocean contact zones are needed to refine model physics and reduce uncertainty in future projections.
Why it matters: If Thwaites accelerates to projected rates, coastal infrastructure faces tens of centimeters of additional sea level rise, worsening storm surge and flooding. The study shows that ice model calibration choices—not just measurements themselves—can shift annual projected ice loss by tens of gigatonnes, directly affecting adaptation timelines for low-lying cities and the accuracy of IPCC-style sea level budgets.
