Oil markets are betting on a swift end to the Iran war. Investors may regret it
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- Brent crude rose over 3% early Thursday, later trading 2.1% higher at $96.29 per barrel.
- U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 2.4% to trade above $90 a barrel.
- Callum Macpherson said markets are "incredibly hard" to navigate amid conflicting Washington‑Tehran signals and that only limited vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz signals a full resolution is still far off.
- Matt Britzman noted the low‑to‑mid $90s price level reflects a clear risk premium, yet crude is still set for a second weekly decline, indicating investors aren't fully pricing a worst‑case disruption.
- Sim Moh Siong warned that Tehran's ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, combined with infrastructure damage and strategic stockpiling, will likely keep oil prices sticky and impede a rapid price decline.
Why it matters: Refiners and airlines face higher fuel costs as Brent sits near $96, while investors risk overpaying for a risk premium that may not evaporate soon, potentially eroding portfolio returns.
