Prediction Markets Abandon Cheap Oil as Brent Passes $100 — SkimNews
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- Brent crude traded at $101.09 on Wednesday, up 3.2% on the day and above $100 for the first time in six weeks, with WTI at $96.27, triggered by Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities (wounding 73) and U.S. Central Command's destruction of eight Iranian oil tankers across Saturday and Tuesday in response to Iranian ballistic missile strikes on a U.S. warship.
- Myriad's crude oil market — asking whether crude reaches $120 or falls to $55 first — now has the $120 side at 56.5%, up 15.1 points and leading the $55 side since early September after trading within a few points through mid-August; the market has taken $12.7 million in volume since March.
- Polymarket's September WTI ladder repriced across the board: touching $100 at 59% (up 9 points), reaching $105 at 30% (up 25 points), and reaching $90 at 71% (up 21 points), while the downside collapsed with WTI dropping to $85 down 33 points to 39% and every rung below in single digits.
- The $55 line, which Myriad still prices at 44.8% as an eventual outcome with no deadline, sits at just 1% on Polymarket for September — reflecting that the two markets ask different questions but both show traders abandoning cheap-oil bets.
- Pump prices followed the futures move: diesel hit a record $5.94 per gallon on Wednesday, beating the prior high set the previous week, while gasoline averaged $4.22 — weeks before midterm elections where Republicans were already struggling to campaign on affordability.
Why it matters: The speed of the repricing is the story: Polymarket's WTI-$105 contract jumped 25 points and the WTI-$85 contract cratered 33 points within days, a magnitude of shift that shows prediction market traders treating Houthi and U.S.-Iran escalation as a regime change for oil, not a headline blip. With diesel at a record $5.94 and gasoline at $4.22 weeks before midterm elections, the timing puts immediate consumer-price pressure on incumbents already weak on affordability messaging.
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