Prediction Markets Abandon Cheap Oil as Brent Passes $100 — SkimNews
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- Brent crude traded at $101.09 on Wednesday morning, up 3.2% on the day and above $100 for the first time in six weeks, with West Texas Intermediate at $96.27.
- Myriad's $120-versus-$55 crude oil market crossed at the start of September and has not crossed back since, with the $120 side at 56.5% (up 15.1 points) after $55 led for most of August.
- Polymarket's September WTI ladder repriced sharply: $100 touched this month at 59% (up 9 points), $105 at 30% (up 25 points), and $90 at 71% (up 21 points).
- Polymarket downside contracts collapsed, with WTI dropping to $85 down 33 points to 39%, and the $55 line sitting at 1% for September versus 44.8% on Myriad's open-ended market.
- Saudi officials reported Houthi rebels attacked Saudi oil facilities early Tuesday, wounding 73, while U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian oil tankers the same day after hitting three more on Saturday in retaliation for ballistic missile strikes on an American warship.
- Pump prices hit a record $5.94/gallon diesel on Wednesday and $4.22 average gasoline, weeks before midterm elections in which Republicans are already struggling to campaign on affordability.
Why it matters: Prediction markets just posted one of their sharpest crude-oil repricings in months — the Myriad $120/$55 crossover hadn't happened since the market opened — driven by an escalation weekend that also pushed diesel to a record $5.94/gallon weeks before midterms, putting Republican affordability messaging under direct, measurable pressure.
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