Vietnam takes BRICS partner tier, not full membership — SkimNews
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- Vietnam chose the BRICS partner tier over full membership, taking eight months from its Kazan Summit invitation to formally accept in June 2025, while Indonesia moved straight to full membership — a delay and choice the author reads as deliberate hedging against the signaling costs of full entry.
- BRICS now counts 11 full members accounting for roughly 41% of global GDP at purchasing power parity, but China alone generates about half of total BRICS output; excluding China, the remaining members' combined share of world goods exports has actually declined since 2011.
- The CPTPP alone is estimated by the World Bank to lift Vietnam's GDP by at least 1.1% by 2030 under conservative assumptions, with larger gains when paired with RCEP and the EU-Vietnam FTA — three enforceable frameworks BRICS cannot match, since partner status confers no tariff schedules, dispute-settlement mechanism, or access to the New Development Bank's roughly $42.9 billion in approved projects.
- Vietnam has built 15 comprehensive strategic partnerships — including with China, Russia, India, the United States, Japan, South Korea and the EU — roughly doubling from seven since To Lam became general secretary, with bilateral channels already handling China-Vietnam trade of about $153 billion in the first half of 2026, Russia-Vietnam trade of $4.77 billion in 2025, and India-Vietnam trade above $16 billion.
- Exports to India, Russia and South Africa still make up less than 3% of Vietnam's total trade, a gap that undercuts the diversification case for BRICS partner status on its own.
- China's 2027 BRICS chairmanship introduces a new variable: India's tenure kept the bloc economics-focused and steered clear of anti-Western posturing, but Beijing is likely to push a more assertive agenda on payment systems and institutional expansion, putting pressure on partner countries to engage more deeply.
- Vietnam upgraded its India relationship to an Enhanced Comprehensive Strategic Partnership during To Lam's May state visit, covering defense, rare earths and a $25 billion bilateral trade target by 2030 — business the Modi-Le Minh Hung summit meeting advanced, but through bilateral channels rather than the BRICS forum itself.
Why it matters: Vietnam's calculus is concrete: it already has enforceable trade frameworks delivering a World Bank-projected 1.1% GDP lift by 2030 and 15 operational bilateral partnerships, while BRICS partner status grants no NDB lending access and covers less than 3% of its exports. The strategic pressure point is China's 2027 BRICS chairmanship, which is likely to push a more assertive agenda on payment systems and force partner countries like Vietnam to deepen engagement or risk losing positioning in the alternative-finance conversation.
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