The careful calculus behind Vietnam’s BRICS hedge — SkimNews

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- Vietnam's PM Le Minh Hung attended the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi, meeting Modi bilaterally on defense, energy, critical minerals, and a proposed 2+2 mechanism on the summit's sidelines
- Vietnam took eight months to accept the BRICS partner-country tier after being invited at the Kazan summit in October 2024, formally joining in June 2025 — while Indonesia moved straight to full membership
- BRICS now counts 11 full members and accounts for roughly 41% of global GDP at PPP, but excluding China, the remaining members' combined share of world goods exports has declined since 2011
- Vietnam's existing trade architecture — the CPTPP (World Bank estimates at least 1.1% GDP lift by 2030), RCEP, and EU-Vietnam FTA — offers enforceable tariff schedules and dispute settlement that BRICS lacks
- Trade with BRICS members runs bilaterally: China-Vietnam hit $153 billion in H1 2026, Russia-Vietnam $4.77 billion in 2025, and India-Vietnam $16 billion-plus — while exports to India, Russia, and South Africa still total under 3% of Vietnam's trade
- Vietnam's partner status grants access to neither the NDB's roughly $42.9 billion across 139 projects nor the $100 billion Contingent Reserve Arrangement, leaving ADB and AIIB as its institutional financiers
- China assumes the BRICS chairmanship in 2027 and is expected to push a more assertive agenda on payment systems and institutional expansion — a shift from India's economics-focused tenure that will pressure partner countries to engage
Why it matters: Vietnam's calculus reveals a template for middle powers: when enforceable trade rules already exist through CPTPP, RCEP, and bilateral pacts, a forum without binding commitments offers positioning, not leverage. With China taking the BRICS chair in 2027, Hanoi's choice to stay in the outer ring rather than upgrade limits how much it will be pulled into Beijing's payment-system agenda.
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