JPMorgan: No Baseline on Oil Endgame as Diesel Hits Record — SkimNews
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- JPMorgan's Natasha Kaneva team wrote that for the first time since the Iran conflict began, they have 'no baseline view' on oil and 'simply don't know how to model the endgame,' after the red lines they once assumed (~$100 oil, ~$5 gas, 4% inflation, 5-handle 10-year yield) were crossed without producing an exit.
- Diesel hit an all-time high of $6.31/gallon with inventories at all-time lows heading into winter demand, while gasoline sits at a seasonally adjusted record $4.37 and oil trades above $100.
- Chevron drew a reiterated buy and a raised $240 target from Goldman Sachs (~17% above the current price and above the $223 Street median), citing Venezuelan production expected to double to ~600,000 b/d by 2031; Evercore ISI separately added BP to its Tactical Outperform list with a $52 target.
- Crescent Energy drew a buy and $19 target from Truist versus a ~$13 stock price, with Stephens holding the Street-high target at $21.
- Citigroup warned that a complete diesel export ban would likely 'spell the end' of refining margins and share prices, even as Valero, HF Sinclair, and Marathon Petroleum hit new highs on expanded crack spreads; industry contacts told the column such a ban would backfire by forcing refiners to cut throughput.
- Trump has said oil and gasoline prices won't fall until after the November 3 elections, and the column cites industry sources who believe he may then escalate against Iranian energy assets.
- Russia may now matter more than Iran to global energy markets, the column argues, as Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have curtailed global diesel supply and pushed European diesel above $10/gallon in some areas.
Why it matters: Wall Street is publicly split between macro uncertainty (JPMorgan has no baseline view on oil) and stock-level conviction (Goldman, Evercore, and Truist all raising targets on energy names), and the gap matters most for refiners sitting at record highs: Citigroup said a complete diesel export ban would likely 'spell the end' of the rally just as diesel inventories sit at all-time lows ahead of peak winter demand.
Ask SkimNews
