ASEAN Foreign Ministers to Meet Myanmar Foreign Minister This Weekend
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- ASEAN foreign ministers will hold an informal meeting with Myanmar's Foreign Minister Tin Maung Swe on July 12 in Bangkok — the first such meeting in five years — confirmed by Thailand and Vietnam's foreign ministries, with Vietnam's spokesperson Pham Thu Hang calling it an opportunity to "promote reconciliation dialogue in Myanmar."
- The 11-nation bloc has excluded Myanmar from its summits since late 2021 over non-implementation of the Five-Point Consensus, the April 2021 roadmap calling for immediate cessation of violence and inclusive dialogue among "all parties."
- Myanmar has approximately 3.6 million displaced people according to the UN, most driven from their homes since the military's February 2021 seizure of power, with ongoing conflict between the military and ethnic armed and resistance forces.
- Thailand is leading the pro-engagement camp: Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow has met Tin Maung Swe multiple times, most recently in Naypyidaw in April, and wants to bring Myanmar back into "the ASEAN family," while Laos last week hosted coup leader Min Aung Hlaing on his first official ASEAN visit as "president."
- Min Aung Hlaing, who took office in April after a controversial and widely boycotted election, has pursued diplomatic normalization including announcing prisoner releases, relocating Aung San Suu Kyi from prison to house arrest, and fitting in state visits to China and India.
- Myanmar's government denied the Philippines' request for ASEAN Special Envoy Ma. Theresa Lazaro to have "brief access" to Aung San Suu Kyi, which Manila called essential to advancing "meaningful political dialogue" under the Five-Point Consensus.
- The most likely outcome is a "growing bifurcation," with ASEAN continuing to exclude the military-backed government from summits while individual member states advance their own bilateral engagement with Naypyidaw.
Why it matters: Myanmar's refusal to grant Lazaro access to Aung San Suu Kyi — directly blocking the Philippines' envoy from engaging 'all stakeholders' — makes the consensus needed to readmit Myanmar unlikely, deepening ASEAN's split between Thailand and Laos pursuing engagement and the Philippines and Malaysia holding the line, even as 3.6 million people remain displaced inside the country.
