U.S. Lost 23,000 Jobs in July, Far Below 80,000 Expected
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- U.S. labor market lost 23,000 jobs in July per the Nonfarm Payrolls Report, far below the 80,000 gain consensus expected and the worst print since February's 156,000-job loss
- Prior months were revised sharply lower, with June cut to 20,000 from 57,000 and May cut to 63,000 from 129,000, signaling the slowdown isn't isolated to July
- Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% month-over-month in July versus 0.3% expected, and 3.2% year-over-year versus 3.5% expected, the second consecutive wage-growth miss
- Unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% despite the job losses, beating the 4.2% consensus as the labor force participation dynamics shifted
- September Fed hike odds on CME FedWatch tumbled from 55% before the print to 46% afterward, as traders bet the weak data gives the Fed room to hold rates despite elevated inflation
- Risk markets reacted swiftly with U.S. stock index futures rising, gold up 3%, and silver up nearly 6%, while bitcoin sat near $65,000 with little movement — the article calls this divergence 'lame price action'
- Decrypt's parallel coverage frames whale accumulation of XRP and bitcoin as a potential bear-market-bottom signal, an angle this piece omits in favor of the macro-rate narrative
Why it matters: Two straight months of weak hiring — plus sharp downward revisions to May and June — gives the Federal Reserve explicit cover to skip a September rate hike despite still-elevated inflation, with CME FedWatch already pricing that shift at 46% probability. The wage-growth miss (0.1% vs 0.3% expected) weakens the case that the labor market is fueling persistent price pressures, weakening the Fed's tightening justification.
