Southern Miss vs. Troy prediction, odds, time: Week 6 college football Tuesday picks by proven model — SkimNews
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- Troy is a 10-point home favorite over Southern Miss in Tuesday's 8 p.m. ET Sun Belt Western Division opener at Larry Blakeney Field at Veterans Memorial Stadium, with the over/under set at 51.5.
- Southern Miss (1-3) arrives on a three-game losing streak after a 24-21 loss to Tulane on Sept. 26, while Troy (2-2) has dropped two straight following a 21-10 loss to Utah State the same day.
- Landry Lyddy is expected to take the majority of snaps at quarterback for Southern Miss with starter Ethan Hampton injured, having completed 61.3% of his passes for 508 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception in four games.
- Goose Crowder leads the Troy offense with 822 passing yards, 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on a 52.3% completion rate.
- Troy leads the recent series with five straight wins in the all-time 8-7 matchup, including a 28-18 victory last season, and the Under 51.5 has hit in six of Southern Miss's last nine games and in each of Troy's last 10.
- The SportsLine Projection Model, on a 40-35 run on top-rated college football picks entering Week 6, projects 49 combined points, making the Under the value pick 52% of the time and one side of the spread a hit in nearly 60% of simulations.
Why it matters: The Under 51.5 has cashed in 10 straight Troy games and six of Southern Miss's last nine, giving the model's 49-point projection a strong historical track record rather than a coin-flip lean. With Southern Miss starting backup QB Landry Lyddy against a Troy offense that has consistently produced low totals, the game script supports the model going Under 52% of the time at kickoff.
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