Southern Miss vs. Troy prediction, odds, time: Week 6 college football Tuesday picks by proven model — SkimNews
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- Southern Miss (1-3) travels to face Troy (2-2) on Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET at Larry Blakeney Field at Veterans Memorial Stadium, opening Sun Belt Conference Western Division play
- Troy is a 10.5-point home favorite with the over/under set at 49.5 points in the latest odds
- SportsLine's projection model simulated the matchup 10,000 times and projects 49 total points, making the Under 49.5 the value play at 51% — a pick supported by the Under hitting in Troy's last 10 games, six of Southern Miss's last nine, and three of the last five head-to-head meetings
- Southern Miss will start senior QB Landry Lyddy in place of injured Ethan Hampton; Lyddy has completed 61.3% of passes for 508 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT through four games
- Troy senior QB Goose Crowder has thrown for 822 yards and 7 TDs this season despite a 52.3% completion rate and 4 interceptions
- SportsLine's model enters Week 6 on a 40-25 run on top-rated college football picks
- Troy has won five straight meetings in the series despite Southern Miss leading the all-time record 8-7, including a 28-18 victory last season
Why it matters: Troy's 2-0 home record and five-game series win streak justify double-digit favoritism, but Lyddy stepping in for the injured Hampton injects uncertainty into Southern Miss's passing game — and the model is steering bettors to the total rather than the side, betting that a depleted Southern Miss offense and Troy's grind-it-out home style will keep scoring below 49.5.
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