2026 U.S. Open picks: Six of nine experts take
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- Scottie Scheffler is the consensus pick among ESPN's nine golf experts, with six selecting him to win the 2026 U.S. Open, motivated in part by the chance to complete the career Grand Slam and potentially celebrate on his 30th birthday on Sunday.
- Rory McIlroy drew two expert picks (Peter Lawrence-Riddell and Paolo Uggetti), with both citing his strong U.S. Open track record since 2018, while Shane Lowry (Michael Collins) was the lone outlier pick, cited for his short-game fit with Shinnecock's greens.
- Pamela Maldonado tabbed Jon Rahm at +1050 to win, calling his compact, repeatable swing and length — often hitting one less club on approach — a fit for Shinnecock's long-iron demands, despite noting his recent T38 at the Masters.
- Maldonado explicitly declined to bet on Scheffler, arguing Shinnecock's randomness could drop him from a top-5 finish to outside the top 10 and noting his long-iron play has been average all season.
- Jake Knapp (+600) was Maldonado's long-shot Top 10 pick, with his high ball flight and 175-yard iron distance flagged as traits suited to holding Shinnecock's firm greens, while Xander Schauffele (-125 with ties) was her Top 20 play.
- Maldonado passed on the winning score UNDER 278.5 despite agreeing with the direction, citing a -148 price tag, and predicted the actual winning score would land between -1 and -3, less brutal than the +1 that won in 2018.
- Russell Henley and Adam Scott joined McIlroy in a +900 Top 20 parlay, a structure Maldonado preferred over McIlroy's +105 Top 10 given his lack of pre-tournament course access comparable to his Masters preparation.
Why it matters: Scheffler is chasing history — the U.S. Open is the one major missing from his résumé, and the Father's Day/Sunday 30th-birthday narrative adds weight to an already heavy favorite role. But Maldonado's dissent is the actionable counter-signal: she's betting Rahm wins and won't touch Scheffler, citing course randomness and his average long-iron play. For bettors and fantasy players, the spread between the media-room consensus and the sharp money line is where the 2026 U.S. Open pricing sits.
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