Grayscale Says Bitcoin May Have Already Bottomed
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- Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl published a Wednesday note arguing Bitcoin may have already hit its cycle low, conditional on the Fed holding off further rate hikes.
- Grayscale rejects the traditional four-year cycle framework—which would predict a bottom in September or October with an average 80% drawdown—in favor of viewing Bitcoin as a macroeconomic asset driven by real interest rates.
- Bitcoin has climbed more than 10% from its early-July low of $57,717, and spot ETFs have logged nearly $1 billion in net inflows over seven straight sessions.
- Bitcoin peaked at around $126,000 in October 2025 and remains roughly 49% below that high, while still sitting on a "weakening monthly bearish trend" per the source.
- The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair rattled the debasement trade and pushed Bitcoin briefly below $58,000 in early July before it bounced.
- 21Shares conceded in June that "price action still looks familiar" to the four-year cycle, while CryptoQuant put the true bear market floor at $55,000 in February based on realized price.
- The Fed meets July 29 and the Clarity Act faces an August 7 Senate deadline—Grayscale frames both as the main near-term price catalysts for Bitcoin.
Why it matters: Grayscale's bullish thesis hinges entirely on Fed behavior at the July 29 meeting: if policymakers hold rates, the macro case validates a bottom around $57,717–$65,000; if they hike, the four-year cycle crowd (21Shares, CryptoQuant) may be vindicated with Bitcoin sliding toward $50,000–$55,000.
