Burns leads 2026 Open by two entering Sunday at Birkdale
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- Sam Burns holds a two-stroke lead entering Sunday's final round at Royal Birkdale, following a record-tying 62 on Friday and a 65 on Saturday that moved him ahead of the field
- Lucas Herbert began the week with a two-stroke lead but shot 1-over 71 on Saturday to fall to T-4, three shots behind Burns after the two had tied the major scoring record on Friday
- Si Woo Kim and Ryan Fox are tied for second at 2 under, with Bryson DeChambeau and Ludvig Aberg at -6, Tommy Fleetwood at -5, and Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm at -4 still in striking range
- SportsLine's model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure and credited with nailing 17 majors including the 2026 Masters, projects Herbert will fall out of the top 10 and recommends fading him at +2000
- The same model is bullish on Ludvig Aberg at +1600 to win and +125 for a top-5 finish, citing his bounce-back rounds of 66 and 67 after an opening 71 and career top-5s at the Masters and PGA Championship
- Burns is the +125 favorite at FanDuel, followed by Kim (+500), Fox (+750), DeChambeau (+1300), and Scheffler at +2700
Why it matters: With Burns installed as a heavy +125 favorite at FanDuel, the outright market offers little value, and the model's 17-major track record gives bettors a contrarian roadmap: fade Herbert (+2000) despite his Friday 62 and back Aberg (+1600) as a value play with top-5 credentials at the year's final major.
