NOAA Forecasts Below-Average 2026 Hurricane Season
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- National Weather Service is predicting 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the Atlantic season running June 1 to Nov. 30, compared with a typical season's 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
- NOAA assigned a 55 percent chance the season will be below normal, 35 percent near normal, and 10 percent above normal, attributing the outlook to an expected El Niño that increases Atlantic wind shear and suppresses storm formation.
- Colorado State University forecasters issued a similar prediction of 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, and pegged U.S. landfall probabilities at 32 percent for the entire coastline, 15 percent for the East Coast, and 20 percent for the Gulf Coast.
- Union for Concerned Scientists fellow Marc Alessi warned that warm Atlantic waters could allow storms that do form to rapidly intensify, pointing to Hurricane Melissa — a Category 5 that caused nearly $9 billion in damage and 95 deaths across the Caribbean last season despite no U.S. landfalls.
- National Weather Service Director Ken Graham stressed that the seasonal outlook does not predict landfall timing or location, adding: 'It just takes one. Now is the time to start thinking about your hurricane preparedness.'
Why it matters: With a 55 percent probability of a below-normal season, coastal residents from the Gulf Coast (20% landfall risk) to the East Coast (15% landfall risk) may underestimate their risk — yet climate-driven warm Atlantic waters mean the few storms that form could intensify rapidly, as Hurricane Melissa's $9 billion Caribbean devastation demonstrated just last year.
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