Do NFL superteams actually win? Barnwell sized up historic big favorites -- and the 2026 Rams
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- 2026 Rams are prohibitive Super Bowl favorites at +550 (12.5% implied probability), 5.1 percentage points clear of the Bills and Ravens, after offseason moves including Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson (secondary), Ty Simpson (draft) and a trade of Jared Verse plus three picks to Cleveland for reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett.
- Bill Barnwell's case studies of the four most lopsided preseason favorites since 1990 all flopped: the 2017 Patriots (19.8% implied odds) lost Super Bowl LII to the Eagles 41-33; the 2007 Patriots (20.9%) lost Super Bowl XLII to the Giants 17-14 after a 16-0 regular season; the 1996 49ers (19.2%) were bounced 35-14 by the Packers in the divisional round; and the 2002 Rams (15.7%) missed the playoffs entirely.
- 2025 ESPN predictions underscored NFL unpredictability: 68 personalities picked AFC/NFC champions and a Super Bowl winner before the season, and not one chose the Seahawks or Patriots, who both reached the Super Bowl.
- Tom Brady and the 2007 Patriots were caught spying on the Jets in a Week 1 blowout, rode arguably the greatest QB season in league history to 16-0, then were upset by the Giants in Super Bowl XLII as the pass rush controlled Brady.
- The 2017 Patriots trailed the Jaguars by nearly three scores in the AFC Championship Game and only advanced after Myles Jack's fumble recovery touchdown was overturned, then lost Super Bowl LII despite Brady's record 505-yard, three-touchdown performance.
- The 2002 Rams collapsed the year after their Super Bowl XXXIV loss to the Patriots: Kurt Warner played only seven games with 11 interceptions against three touchdowns, while All-Pros Aeneas Williams and Orlando Pace missed 16 combined games.
Why it matters: If the pattern Barnwell documents holds, the Rams' blockbuster Garrett trade and aggressive secondary rebuild won't translate to a Lombardi Trophy — and the 12.5% implied Super Bowl odds priced into DraftKings markets look generous given that the four most lopsided preseason favorites since 1990 went a combined 0-for-4 on titles. For McVay, Snead and the Rams, the historical lesson is that being the clear preseason favorite is closer to a warning sign than a coronation.
Ask SkimNews
