Bitcoin awaits Fed rate decision below $76K as analysis discounts ‘dovish surprise’ odds — SkimNews
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- Bitcoin traded below $76,000 after hitting September lows of $74,960, with the CLARITY Act failing to secure the 60 Senate votes needed to advance — a regulatory headwind squeezing US demand.
- CME's FedWatch Tool priced a 0.25% Fed rate hike at over 90% odds for the Sept. 16 FOMC meeting, which would lift the federal funds rate to 3.75-4%.
- The Kobeissi Letter flagged that in data going back to 2008, the Fed has invariably delivered whenever hike expectations ran this high — a hold would mark the biggest dovish surprise at a scheduled policy meeting since 1994.
- WTI crude hit $106.70 per barrel on Tuesday, its highest since May 4, as an expanding Middle East war pressured oil supply chains and fed directly into US CPI inflation.
- Central banks are tightening in lockstep — the ECB enacted a 0.25% hike last week, while the Bank of Japan is expected to follow Friday with a move bringing its benchmark to 1.25%, its highest in 31 years.
- Glassnode identified exchange order-book bid liquidity pointing to $68,000 as the next line of support, with a deeper on-chain floor at $62,000-$65,000 and a short-term holder cost basis at $71,300.
Why it matters: Bitcoin short-term holders sit on an aggregate cost basis of $71,300 — if that breaks, Glassnode's on-chain floor at $62,000-$65,000 implies a roughly 15-20% drop from current levels, with oil-driven inflation forcing the Fed to hike into Trump's explicit demand for cuts.
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