Model backs Penn State, Auburn in Week 7 college football picks — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and enters Week 7 on a 48-40 run on top-rated college football picks, a track record it says has returned more than $400 to $100 players.
- Penn State (+6, total 42.5) is the model's A-rated pick at Michigan, covering in well over 60% of simulations, with QB Rocco Becht projected to top 200 passing yards and the Nittany Lions forecast for 130-plus rushing yards.
- Auburn (+19.5, 50.5) covers at Georgia nearly 60% of the time in model simulations, coming off a bye after beating Alabama, with a three-headed rushing attack of Byrum Brown, Jeremiah Cobb and Omar Mabson II projected for 125 yards.
- Michigan has covered just twice over its last eight games following a bye, and this season's Wolverines own the second-worst scoring offense and second-most turnovers in the Big Ten.
- Georgia is just 11-17 ATS (39%) after a win since the start of 2024, and after beating Alabama last year the Dawgs outright lost their next game — a pattern the model flags as Georgia potentially looking ahead to its Week 8 bye.
- No. 2 Notre Dame is a 10.5-point road favorite at No. 8 BYU, while No. 4 Ohio State is a 2.5-point road favorite against No. 5 Indiana in two top-10 matchups on the Week 7 slate.
- No. 3 Miami is a 20.5-point home favorite over Florida State — one of the largest spreads on Saturday's full slate of games.
Why it matters: The model is staking its biggest Week 7 convictions on two statistical patterns: Michigan's 2-6 ATS record coming off byes and Georgia's 39% ATS rate after wins since 2024 — both of which let large underdogs back into games where public money typically piles onto favorites. With Penn State +6 and Auburn +19.5, plus calls for two touchdown-plus underdogs to win outright, bettors face a slate where the simulation is leaning sharply against chalk.
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