Week 7 College Football Picks: Model Backs Penn State, Auburn — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's model has simulated every FBS game 10,000 times for Week 7, entering the slate on a 48-40 run on top-rated college football picks and returning more than $400 per $100 wagered.
- Penn State (+6, total 42.5) is an A-rated pick to cover at Michigan, with the model projecting QB Rocco Becht for over 200 passing yards and PSU over 130 rushing yards against a Wolverines squad that has covered just twice in its last eight games following a bye.
- Auburn (+20.5, total 49.5) covers at Georgia in more than 50% of simulations, with the model citing Georgia's 11-17 ATS record (39%) after wins since the start of 2024 as a trap-game indicator.
- Miami is a 21-point home favorite over Florida State in the largest spread on Saturday's slate, while the model also flags two top-10 matchups: No. 2 Notre Dame -10 at No. 8 BYU and No. 4 Ohio State -3.5 at No. 5 Indiana.
- Among other notable Week 7 lines: Florida at Texas (-10.5) and Mississippi State at LSU (-12.5), plus rivalry games Georgia-Auburn (+20.5), Alabama-Tennessee (+8.5), and Utah-Colorado (+15.5).
- The model is calling for "several major upsets, including two touchdown-plus underdogs who outright win" somewhere on the Week 7 card.
Why it matters: The model hands bettors specific, sim-backed picks on the week's most-watched rivalry games, and its 39% ATS trend on Georgia after wins since 2024 is a concrete, historical data point explaining why Auburn at +20.5 is more than a token underdog — it's a stat-driven spread play in a slate where Miami's 21-point line against Florida State underscores how wide the gap has become between the Hurricanes and the rest of the ACC.
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