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- Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio dropped to -20 on June 11, matching levels hit at the 2015, 2018-19, and 2022-23 cycle lows per CryptoQuant data reviewed by CoinDesk — but in each prior case, -20 marked the start of a long base, not a launch, staying below the line for roughly five months in 2015 and about three months each in 2018-19 and 2022-23.
- Accumulator wallets absorbed approximately 125,000 BTC in the first half of June, while exchange reserves have fallen roughly 80,000 BTC since February to about 2.71 million.
- Whales pulled more than 11,000 BTC off exchanges in the past day, adding to a run of on-chain bottom signals over two weeks from valuation and sentiment gauges as well.
- Bitcoin's recovery from its $59,130 low to roughly $65,800 was driven by the US-Iran deal, not the on-chain metrics, per CoinDesk data.
- Today's FOMC decision — Kevin Warsh's first as chair — is the next test: a hold is nearly fully priced, leaving the dot plot and Warsh's tone on inflation to decide whether the recovery extends.
Why it matters: Historically, a -20 Sharpe reading has preceded months of sideways base-building rather than an immediate rebound, meaning traders eyeing a swift recovery from the $59,130 low may be early; the FOMC's dot plot under new Chair Warsh could either confirm or override the accumulation pattern, with 125,000 BTC in fresh wallet inflows and 80,000 BTC drawn off exchanges since February as the supply-side backdrop.
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