An unexpected feedback loop may be driving mega heatwaves — SkimNews
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- Science Advances published research by Kai Kornhuber and colleagues identifying a three-way feedback among dry soil, high-pressure systems and extreme heat that makes heatwaves 10% hotter than they otherwise would be.
- Kai Kornhuber said soils affected by circulation patterns begin affecting those same patterns, while heat dries the soil and high pressure increases surface heating; he said climate-model projections do not fully include the resulting feedback.
- Dim Coumou said the study solves part of the puzzle behind heatwaves exceeding model projections and shows that climate models are not reproducing the feedback mechanism well.
- Europe will hit thresholds where the feedback is triggered increasingly often as the world warms, alongside Russia, North America, parts of South America and Australia.
- UK recorded temperatures above 40°C for the first time in its history in 2022, while the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave reached extremes that far outstripped climate-model projections.
- Kai Kornhuber warned that an extra 10% can make the difference between a heatwave and a record-shattering heatwave because social and biophysical systems have critical thresholds.
Why it matters: For European governments and operators of transport links and energy grids, heatwaves that are 10% hotter mark the difference between a severe event and a record-shattering one. Because climate models do not fully capture the soil–pressure–heat feedback, preparations for public health, infrastructure breakdowns, crop failures and ecosystem collapse must account for intensity current projections miss.
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